Right around Week 5 in the NFL Regular Season, NFL Football bettors can begin using game statistics as a pretty good indication on how teams really are. Using game stats prior to this week results in smaller sample that can be heavily influenced by strength of schedule and untypical performances.
There are, however, some notable exceptions. Key injuries, suspensions, and bad lines making teams look better or worse than they appear.
There have been a number of key injuries this season – especially at the quarterback position. Ben Roethlisberger and Tony Romo will be out several more weeks, while Andrew Luck and Drew Breese have missed games as well.
We’ll discuss Pittsburgh briefly, because they present a perfect example of a team to avoid when using game statistics in NFL handicapping. To start the year, Pittsburgh was missing RB Le’Veon Bell – one of their top offensive threats and really the one player the offense was based around. With Bell, Pittsburgh relied on the QB-to-WR combo of Big Ben to Antonio Brown with moderate success. When Bell returned from his suspension, Big Ben suffered a bad leg injury, so backup QB Mike Vick took over. Since that time, the Steelers have become heavily dependent on the run while their passing numbers have gone way down.
Because of the key injuries and suspensions, we don’t yet have a good grasp of what this offense really is. They were a home underdog last Thursday against winless Baltimore, and played good enough to win (if not for a couple of untimely missed field goal) but eventually lost in overtime. With Vick having a better grasp of the offense every week, we expect that passing game to improve from game to game. But going on average passing and rushing numbers through the first four games does not paint an accurate picture of the current state of this offense.
Atlanta is off to a perfect 4-0 start both straight up and ATS according to successful bookies. The Falcons were listed as underdogs in each of their first three games where they beat Philadelphia at home and the Cowboys and Giants on the road. Not sure the Falcons would be listed as an underdog in any of those three games by the online sportsbooks based on what we now know, and the four-point win at New York and two-point win vs Philly may not be an ATS cover now, as it was when those games were played. Not suggesting the Falcons are overrated, but that 4-0 ATS mark is a bit misleading.
What we can use from the first four weeks (for teams whose rosters remained largely intact) is how teams match up against their current opponents. San Francisco can’t win of they can’t run. Detroit has no rushing threat at all. San Diego’s success seems to be tied to their rush defense. Use rush-to-pass frequency and compare to how their opponents defend that type of offensive game plan to get an edge when going through your NFL football handicapping routine this weekend.
