So much for home field advantage. All four home teams lost outright last weekend in the Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs (although two of the four home teams did cover the pointspread). You may recall that only the only home team favored by the online sportsbooks was Washington (as a small one-point choice), as the Chiefs, Steelers, and Seahawks were all listed as road favorites.
Pittsburgh and Seattle were particularly fortunate to advance to this weekend. The Steelers held a commanding lead for the majority of the game, but Cincinnati made a late comeback to take the lead with about two minutes remaining. Pittsburgh benefitted from a few calls and fortuitous penalties to get close enough to kick the game-winning field goal. That final drive has Bengals fans seething, enough for them to start a petition to look into the officiating.
Minnesota fans aren’t angry as much as they are disappointed. They were all set to advance to the next round and only needed to make a 27-yard field goal on the final play, but Vikings kicker Blair Walsh hooked it left and Seattle survived. There are multiple theories for the missed field goal and the hold was certainly poor, but any way you look at it the Vikings walk away knowing they should have won that game.
Moving on to this weekend, all four home teams are favored to win. New England, Denver, Carolina, and Arizona were all off last week earning a first-round bye. All four of those teams are returning less than 2:1 odds to win their conference, and while the Patriots are currently a +350 favorite to win the Super Bowl, there are four other teams that are between +400 and +475 to win it all.
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NFL Betting trends favor the Patriots both to win outright as well as to cover the spread this Saturday. Kansas City is 2-10 ATS in playoff games while New England is 17-7 ATS on their home field. The Chiefs have been great at stopping the run this year, but the Patriots will employ a pass-heavy offense as running backs Lewis and Blount are both done for the year. New England should get WR Julian Edelman back on the field for this game, which can only help Tom Brady’s chances of winning this game.
The Packers vs. Cardinals matchup is very interesting as Arizona just beat Green Bay at home a few weeks ago. In that game, Arizona held the Packers to just 178 total yards while forcing four turnovers in their 38-8 blowout victory. Green Bay did gain some confidence last week, however, scoring 35 points in an easy win vs. Washington which was the Packers highest scoring output since September.
Carolina and Pittsburgh also have in-season victories over their opponents on Sunday, so be sure to refer to those games when handicapping this weekend’s NFL Playoffs games. We’ll be back next week!
